An eye-opener: more than Monte Carlo!

In the real world, day in and day out, we analyze risk to make more informed, lucrative decisions. One major limitation of Excel is its inability to easily generate alternative outcomes, which can be used to quantify your probability of success and to mitigate your risks. Excel alone cannot help you to understand how variable or uncertain inputs will affect your forecasts. Tools like Crystal Ball that use Monte Carlo analysis as its basis, are used to create thousands of possible alternative outcomes for the underlying model in such uncertain situations. For example, if you are simulating a reservoir in the oil and energy industry, it is possible to generate 5000 scenarios that represent 5000 separate solutions. By analyzing the statistics of the simulation, it is possible to quantity potential oil reserves.

A better analysis means a better-informed decision.

So...what's the probability that you can benefit from Crystal Ball's simulation and analysis?

source:http://www.decisioneering.com/oilandgas/index.html