An eye-opener: more than Monte Carlo!

In the real world, day in and day out, we analyze risk to make more informed, lucrative decisions. One major limitation of Excel is its inability to easily generate alternative outcomes, which can be used to quantify your probability of success and to mitigate your risks. Excel alone cannot help you to understand how variable or uncertain inputs will affect your forecasts. Tools like Crystal Ball that use Monte Carlo analysis as its basis, are used to create thousands of possible alternative outcomes for the underlying model in such uncertain situations. For example, if you are simulating a reservoir in the oil and energy industry, it is possible to generate 5000 scenarios that represent 5000 separate solutions. By analyzing the statistics of the simulation, it is possible to quantity potential oil reserves.

A better analysis means a better-informed decision.

So...what's the probability that you can benefit from Crystal Ball's simulation and analysis?

source:http://www.decisioneering.com/oilandgas/index.html

Maximizing score to make sense!

Determining the Best Combination of Word Senses

The early versions of the uK analyzer at this point simply tried all of the possible combinations of word senses. Each combination activates the applicable constraints, which are combined into a total score for the combination. The combination with the best total score is chosen as the basic Semantic Dependency Analysis, the core TMRs to which other microtheories (such as aspect and coreference) can be applied. In the example sentence, the following choices were made:

1. ``a-traves-de'' is INSTRUMENT, since its LOCATION meaning would require ``adquirir'' to be a PHYSICAL-OBJECT.
2. ``en'' is LOCATION, since its TEMPORAL meaning requires ``espana'' to be a TEMPORAL-OBJECT.
3. ``adquirir'' maps into ACQUIRE, since its LEARN sense requires ``Dr-Andrew'' to be INFORMATION.
4. ``Dr-Andrew'' is an ORGANIZATION, since its HUMAN meaning cannot be the THEME of an ACQUIRE concept.
5. uK currently has trouble choosing between the CORPORATION and SOCIAL-EVENT meaning of ``compania,'' the object of the ``a-traves-de'' PP. Both can have locations in Spain, and both can be INSTRUMENTS of EVENTs. At this point, uK needs to add information into the ontology that ORGANIZATIONS can typically fill the INSTRUMENT slot of ACQUIRE acts, but SOCIAL-EVENTS cannot. Statistical information could also be consulted to tell us that in this business context the CORPORATION meaning is more likely.

source: New Mexico State University Research project

This I believe

Career decisions are largely driven by_____. Perplexing?
In every one of our lives, comes a day when we are faced with the challenge of choosing a career path. For some its passion, for others, its pure belief! Ultimately, what are we looking for? What is the objective function? Do means that appear crystal clear at one point of time, remain unfogged? Read this essay from the 1950s to know more.. This I Believe

Contributor: Julia Adams Location: Little Rock, AR Country: United States of America Series: 1950s

From the time I can remember, I have wanted to be an actress. No one in my entire family had ever had artistic yearnings, so they looked upon my girlish dreams as a rather silly and impractical phase, which I would surely outgrow and then settle down in Arkansas like my more sensible cousins. But the dreams were still there when I reached the age of twenty, and I came to a rather shaky decision that I had to try it. In the five years since that day, I’ve come to realize that whatever part of myself forced me to strike out rather haphazardly for Hollywood is the only real wisdom I possess. That part of me seemed to know that no matter how difficult achieving my goal might be, or even if I never achieved it, I would be happier striving toward my dream than if I tried to find security in a life I was unsuited for. This knowledge and quiet surety came from within me, and yet seemed to have its source far beyond comprehension of my wavering and indecisive personality. It alone kept me from quitting during that first year in which I discovered how right my family was in warning of the difficulties in store for me with no financial backing. I found expensive dramatic lessons and living costs left almost nothing from my check as a secretary, with the very necessary clothes for studio interviews. But of course what really made me feel like catching the next bus for Arkansas was that in all the offices I managed to invade, not one casting man had looked at me with sudden interest and exclaimed, “That girl has something.” My lovely air castles were quickly shattered, and I was forced to listen to the wiser, inner voice again. This time it had a new message: “Look at yourself honestly.” Well this seemed simple enough, but it turned out to be very unpleasant indeed. One honest glance told me that only by unglamorous hard work over quite a few years would this gangling, unsure Arkansas girl be transformed into my dream of a fine actress. After I recovered from the first shock of this discovery, to my surprise I began to feel stronger and more hopeful about the future. Since then I’ve found this inner voice always spoke the truth or made me try to find it for myself. Of course, I wandered away from it at times or rebelled when it said “no” to something I wanted very much at that moment. But these excursions away from my wiser self led only to confusion and unhappiness. Strangely enough, now that I’ve climbed a couple of rungs of the long ladder up, sometimes I find it harder to listen to the inner voice than when I was alone and struggling. It’s a very quiet voice and is easily drowned out by outside babble. But one word from it is worth a book of advice from the best intentioned friends. The voice seems very stern at times, as it makes me accept the responsibility for my failures and shortcomings, instead of excusing them or laying the blame elsewhere. But while it takes away petty egotism and silly pretensions, the voice whispers of things that send my thoughts and imagination soaring. It tells me no dream is impossible because faith in my inner self will guide me to its fulfillment. This belief in my inner self banishes fear and doubt and frees me to live and love and work to the fullest.

source: thisibelieve.org

Admissions to US colleges

The College Admissions Game

“The problem has not been lack of creativity in students but lack of creativity in the college admissions process.”Robert Sternberg, dean of arts and sciences at Tufts.
Click Quirky Essays a Window to Future Success?

source: NPR.org